India: Economy Growth Rate & Statistics

India has emerged as the fastest-growing major economy in the world and is expected to be one of the top three economic powers in the world over the next 10-15 years, backed by its robust democracy and strong partnerships

MARKET SIZE

India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices stood at Rs. 195.86 lakh crore (US$ 2.71 trillion) in FY21, as per the second advance estimates (SAE) for 2020-21.

India is the fourth-largest unicorn base in the world with over 21 unicorns collectively valued at US$ 73.2 billion, as per the Hurun Global Unicorn List. By 2025, India is expected to have ~100 unicorns by 2025 and will create ~1.1 million direct jobs according to the Nasscom-Zinnov report ‘Indian Tech Start-up’.

India needs to increase its rate of employment growth and create 90 million non-farm jobs between 2023 and 2030’s, for productivity and economic growth according to McKinsey Global Institute. Net employment rate needs to grow by 1.5% per year from 2023 to 2030 to achieve 8-8.5% GDP growth between 2023 and 2030.

India’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $592 billion, as of March 28, 2021, according to data from RBI.

Recent Developments                                                                                 

With an improvement in the economic scenario, there have been investments across various sectors of the economy. In 2020, the total deal value in India stood at US$ 80 billion across 1,268 transactions. Of this, M&A activity contributed 50% to the total transaction value. Private Equity – Venture Capital (PE-VC) sector recorded investments worth US$ 47.6 billion across 921 deals in 2020. Some of the important recent developments in Indian economy are as follows

1. India’s overall exports from April 2020 to February 2021 were estimated at US$ 439.64 billion, (a 10.14% decrease over the same period last year). Overall imports from April 2020 to February 2021 were estimated at US$ 447.44 billion (a 20.83% decrease over the same period last year).
2. According to IHS Markit, Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 57.5 in February 2021.
3. Gross tax revenue stood at Rs. 113,143 crore (US$ 15.58 billion) in February 2021, up from Rs. 105,361 crore (US$ 14.51 billion).
4. Cumulative FDI equity inflows in India stood at US$ 749.39 billion between April 2000 and December 2020.
5. India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for January 2021 stood at 135.2, against 136.6 for December 2020.
6. Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) – combined inflation was 3.87% in February 2021, against 1.96% in January 2021.
7. Consumer Price Index (CPI) – combined inflation was 5.03% in February 2021, against 4.06% in January 2021.

Government Initiatives

The first Union Budget of the third decade of 21st century was presented by Minister for Finance & Corporate Affairs, Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman in the Parliament on February 1, 2020.  The budget aimed at energising the Indian economy through a combination of short-term, medium-term and long-term measures.

In the Union Budget 2021-22, capital expenditure for FY22 is likely to increase to increase by 34.5% at Rs. 5.5 lakh crore (US$ 75.81 billion) over FY21 (BE) to boost the economy.

Increased government expenditure is expected to attract private investments, with production-linked incentive scheme providing excellent opportunities. Consistently proactive, graded and measured policy support is anticipated to boost the Indian economy.

In March 2021, the Ministry of Electronics and IT (MeitY) invited applications for the second round of large-scale electronics manufacturing under the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme. The window to apply for the scheme has been opened until March 31, 2021, which could be further extended in accordance with guidelines issued by the MeitY.

In March 2021, following the announcement of incentive schemes for mobile and IT hardware manufacturing, the government announced to consider a key scheme for establishing display fabrication units in India. The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) has requested expressions of interest (EoIs) from organisations interested in establishing LCD/OLED/AMOLED/QLED-based display fabrication units in India.

In November 2020, the Government of India announced Rs. 2.65 lakh crore (US$ 36 billion) stimulus package to generate job opportunities and provide liquidity support to various sectors such as tourism, aviation, construction and housing. Also, India’s cabinet approved the production-linked incentives (PLI) scheme to provide Rs. 2 trillion (US$ 27 billion) over five years to create jobs and boost production in the country.

Numerous foreign companies are setting up their facilities in India on account of various Government initiatives like Make in India and Digital India. Mr. Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, launched Make in India initiative with an aim to boost country’s manufacturing sector and increase purchasing power of an average Indian consumer, which would further drive demand and spur development, thus benefiting investors. The Government of India, under its Make in India initiative, is trying to boost the contribution made by the manufacturing sector with an aim to take it to 25% of the GDP from the current 17%. Besides, the Government has also come up with Digital India initiative, which focuses on three core components: creation of digital infrastructure, delivering services digitally and to increase the digital literacy.

Some of the recent initiatives and developments undertaken by the Government are listed below:

1. In March 2021, Flipkart announced plans to expand its grocery services to >70 cities in the next six months. As a result of this planned expansion, customers in seven key cities and >40 neighboring cities will be able to access high-quality grocery items, deals, fast deliveries and a seamless shopping experience.
2. In February 2021, Amazon India announced to start manufacturing of electronics products in India. The company plans to commence its manufacturing efforts with its contract manufacturer, Cloud Network Technology, a subsidiary of Foxconn in Chennai, and start production in 2021.
3. In March 2021, India and Kuwait decided to establish a joint ministerial commission to strengthen ties in sectors such as energy, trade, investment, manpower & labour and IT. According to a joint statement, the commission will be focused on developing the best platform to strengthen alliance in areas of energy, trade, economy, investment, human resources, manpower and labour, finance, culture, information technology, health, education, defence and security.
4. In March 2021, the parliament approved a bill to increase foreign direct investments (FDIs) in the insurance sector from 49% to 74%. Union Minister for Finance and Corporate Affairs, Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman, who is piloting the Bill, stated that increasing the FDI limit in the insurance sector will support insurers in boosting additional funds and overcoming financial issues.
5. In March 2021, the parliament passed the ‘National Commission for Allied, Healthcare Professions Bill, 2021’. Union Minister for Health and Family Welfare, Science and Technology and Earth Sciences, Mr. Harsh Vardhan stated that the law aims to meet the sector’s long-standing demands and increase professional employment opportunities.
6. In March 2020, the Union Cabinet approved the revised cost estimate (RCE) of the comprehensive scheme for strengthening of transmission & distribution in Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim at an estimated cost of Rs. 9,129.32 crore (US$ 1.26 billion) to support the economic growth in those by strengthening the intrastate transmission and distribution systems.
7. In March 2020, the Union Cabinet approved a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare and the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Fiji to strengthen bilateral ties and collaborate in the area of agricultural and allied sectors.
8. India is expected to attract investment of around US$ 100 billion in developing the oil and gas infrastructure during 2019-23.
9. The Government of India is going to increase public health spending to 2.5% of the GDP by 2025.
10. For implementation of Agriculture Export Policy, Government approved an outlay Rs. 2.068 billion (US$ 29.59 million) for 2019, aimed at doubling farmers income by 2022.

Road Ahead

India recorded the real GDP (gross domestic product) growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of FY21, as per the NSO’s (National Statistical Office) second advance estimates. This rise indicates V-shaped recovery progression that started in the second quarter of FY21.

As per Economic Survey 2020-21, India’s real GDP growth for FY22 is projected at 11%. The January 2021 WEO update forecast a 11.5% increase in FY22 and a 6.8% rise in FY23. According to the IMF, in the next two years, India is also expected to emerge as the fastest-growing economy.

India is focusing on renewable sources to generate energy. It is planning to achieve 40% of its energy from non-fossil sources by 2030, which is currently 30% and have plans to increase its renewable energy capacity from to 175 gigawatt (GW) by 2022.

India is expected to be the third largest consumer economy as its consumption may triple to US$ 4 trillion by 2025, owing to shift in consumer behaviour and expenditure pattern, according to a Boston Consulting Group (BCG) report. It is estimated to surpass USA to become the second largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) by 2040 as per a report by PricewaterhouseCoopers.